COP30 outcomes and what they mean for Australia’s COP31 Co-Presidency

COP30 in Belém, Brazil, delivered a pivotal moment for global climate action. While the outcomes were mixed, the summit clarified international expectations and made it clear that Australia would not host, but instead have the co-presidency of COP31 with Türkiye in 2026. 

In this briefing, we have assembled an overview for our community of the key insights of what happened in Belém and the unique opportunity that has emerged for Climate Action Week Sydney 2026, highlighting Australia’s opportunity to impact COP31 next year. 

Climate Action Week Sydney 2026 (CAWSYD26) will play a crucial role as the premier climate event in the region. This means we have an even greater agenda to work towards CAWSYD26.

Nine important things that happened at COP30

1. A Global Shift From Promise to Delivery

COP30 signalled a transition into the implementation era. Countries are now judged on measurable progress rather than new pledges. The summit was framed as a shift from “promise to deliver,” but the results were mixed: while it delivered progress on climate finance and adaptation goals, it fell short of securing a clear, time-bound commitment to phase out fossil fuels.

Although COP30 achieved political agreement to triple adaptation finance and advanced mechanisms such as the Just Transition Work Programme, it did not achieve the level of ambition scientists say is required to keep 1.5°C within reach. (Source: Carbon Brief – Key COP30 Outcomes)

2. Fossil Fuel Phase-out Deferred

Despite strong advocacy from a coalition of 88 countries, fossil fuels were not mentioned in the final decision text. Draft language on phasing out fossil fuels and reforming fossil fuel subsidies was ultimately removed from the Mutirão decision. This deferral places significant pressure on COP31 to address the gap.

President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) opened COP30 with a call for climate ambition, which the COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago rallied around when he announced plans to create two roadmaps: one focused on halting and reversing deforestation, and another on guiding a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.

It was reported that around 1600 fossil fuel lobbyists were present at this year's COP which, as reported by media outlets, presents a significant conflict of interest when so much investment is made to promote the continued use of fossil fuels despite the science showing us that we need to face this out.

3. A New Climate Finance Program: The Mutirão Decision

The Mutirão decision, a high-level political text proposed by the COP30 Presidency and adopted by the Parties, establishes a two-year program of work on climate finance to ensure ongoing discussion of the Baku Commitment (which was established at COP29 last year).

The program will provide political follow-up to the Baku-to-Belém roadmap and scale up climate finance from public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035. It also preserves space for developing countries to continue pushing for public finance from developed nations toward the USD 300 billion mobilisation goal under the Baku decision.

4. Adaptation Finance Tripled, but Implementation Timelines Extended

Parties agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035 (baseline year 2022), but the long delivery horizon raises concerns for climate-vulnerable nations. COP30 was expected to finalise the indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), but the final outcome was fragmented.

A list of 60 indicators was adopted, covering finance, technology transfer, capacity building, gender-responsive policies, and disaggregation by gender, age, geography, and ecosystems. Yet last-minute political changes weakened their credibility and complicated implementation. After two years of negotiation, Parties also adopted the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) assessment. The decision acknowledges developing countries’ progress in adaptation planning while highlighting major challenges, including insufficient finance, weak early-warning systems, and gaps in climate data. (Source: Carbon Brief – GGA Indicators Explained)

5. Gender Action Plan Finalised

COP30 reached a successful conclusion on the long-awaited Gender Action Plan (GAP). The agreement requires countries to embed gender equality across national climate policies, reporting processes, and UNFCCC communications. It also recognises that people’s climate vulnerabilities and ability to participate in climate action are shaped by intersecting factors such as race, age, and disability. This connects with our goal to have a flagship event during CAWSYD26 on Women and Gender Diversity.

6. Adaptation Indicators Adopted Amid Disputes

The final list of 60 global adaptation indicators includes essential elements for measuring adaptation progress, but late revisions made outside the expert-driven process have raised concerns about the indicators’ feasibility and operational integrity. These concerns are expected to resurface during COP31 technical negotiations. (More info: IISD – COP30 Outcome Analysis)

7. Pre-COP31 to Be Hosted in the Pacific

The Pre-COP31 meeting will be hosted in a Pacific Island country, supported by the Australian Government.

This will give global leaders firsthand visibility of Pacific climate impacts and provide a platform for Pacific-led solutions, priorities, and resilience initiatives, critical to elevating regional voices ahead of COP31.

8. Australia as the President of Negotiations for COP31

Under the bilateral COP31 hosting arrangement, Türkiye will hold the COP Presidency, while Australia will serve as the President of Negotiations.

Australia’s responsibilities, effective from the close of COP30 until the end of COP31, include:

• progressing all mandates arising from COP30
• convening consultations throughout the year to shape the negotiations
• leading all communications related to negotiation processes
• selecting ministerial and technical co-facilitators
• drafting COP31 negotiation texts
• acting as the primary liaison with the UNFCCC

Australia and Pacific Island countries will jointly set the agenda for the Pacific Pre-COP, with Australia holding responsibility for all operational and logistical functions. Türkiye, Australia, and Pacific partners will also co-elevate the COP31 Action Agenda, including a dedicated COP31 session focused on the climate-finance needs of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and mobilisation toward the Pacific Resilience Facility.

Australia will be nominated as Vice-President of COP31 to support these functions. Where differences arise between Türkiye and Australia, both Parties have committed to consult until an agreement is reached. (More info: Australian Government – COP31 Leadership Announcement)

9. Political Backdrop: Demonstrations and Disruptions

COP30 unfolded against a highly charged political backdrop. Throughout the summit, Belém civil society was mobilised, with youth groups, Indigenous leaders, and environmental organisations staging protests both throughout the city and within the conference venue.

Demonstrators demanded a clear fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap, stronger protections for frontline communities, and accountability for countries lagging on climate action. These activities, captured by The Guardian and further analysed by Carbon Brief, reflected a growing public impatience with incremental progress and mounting expectations for transformational outcomes at COP31.

Compounding the intensity of the negotiations, the venue hosting COP30 faced a fire outbreak during the conference period. Several delegates referenced the fires in plenary discussions, noting the rapidly narrowing window to keep 1.5°C within reach. For many Pacific and Amazonian Indigenous delegates, the juxtaposition of negotiations and environmental crisis reinforced calls for a more ambitious, justice-centred global response.

What does this all mean for CAWSYD26?

‍The announcement that Australia will not host COP31 in Adelaide was disappointing, but the outcome also presents a unique opportunity for our region. CAWSYD26 is uniquely positioned to fill the space left by the hosting announcement as we continue to be Australia’s premier public activation and climate community convening platform in the year of its global negotiation leadership. 

CAWSYD26 is set to elevate climate ambition in our region, supporting our Pacific neighbours, amplifying community-led adaptation solutions, enabling cross-sector dialogue, and showcasing climate action across Sydney and around the country. In a year when Australia will shape global negotiations. 

Join us by hosting an event, volunteering to activate the program and contributing to the climate action community. Be sure to sign up to our mailing list to get regular updates on the opportunities to contribute to climate activation.